Bush's Re-elect Numbers Drop Below 50% in Gallup Poll
Although his current approval rating in the just-released CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is at 57% (on the high side in comparison with other recent polls), Bush's re-elect numbers have slipped to 47% in the poll released just today. Just as noteworthy is the movement in the voters' assessments of current conditions and the future as compared to those same numbers in December.
A quick and successful occupation of Iraq would push these numbers back towards Bush's favor, of course. But therein lies the rub.
Market and economic indicators have been mixed over the last several weeks, with durable goods orders looking good in January while unemployment numbers not yet reflecting a positive trend. But given the trends in these polls recently, especially in consumer confidence, frankly Bush has backed himself into a situation where he needs this war to go as well as Wolfie/Rummy/Uncle Dick say it will.
If we find ourselves fighting a war in the cities against the Republican Guard, and the Iranians in the North, and suffer another domestic attack here anytime in the next six months, well then all bets are off.