Don't Fret Yet Over the New CBS Poll
A quick word about any discouragements folks may feel from seeing the results of the new CBS poll that came out today. According to this poll, done by CBS News alone, Bush’s approval rating went up three points to 54%, from a 51% level three weeks ago, and his lead against an unnamed Democrat moved from a 44%/44% tie three weeks ago to a 46%/34% spread now, with a large number of those polled wanting to see who the Democrat was first before making a choice.
Note that the sample size for this latest poll was a small 751 adults nationwide, randomly selected and conducted through phone interviews. The MOE for the poll was plus or minus four points. But the earlier CBS News/New York Times had a sample size of almost a thousand adults chosen at random, with a MOE of +/- 3 percent.
And before getting gloomy at this poll’s results, compare the small sample size and large MOE for this poll against the Pew Center poll of just last Sunday, which sampled twice as many as the CBS poll, and found an approval rating of only 50%, with 42% disapproving of Bush’s performance. The Zogby poll of last Saturday, with a larger sample size than the CBS poll and a smaller MOE, but amongst likely voters, showed more people with a negative view of Bush’s performance (51%) than those with a positive view (49%). The American Research Group poll through Tuesday of this week showed Bush with a 48%/48% approve/disapprove split amongst a sample size of 1,100 with a MOE of +/- three points.
So please don’t read too much into this latest CBS Poll yet.