Ipsos/Cook Poll Shows Recent Slippage For Bush
The most recent Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll taken last Tuesday through Thursday of over a thousand adults revealed some interesting findings. Ipsos/Cook conducted their interviews in two segments, interviews of 1001 adults/783 registered voters November 4-6, and another set of 1003 adults/792 registered voters last week, November 18-20.
The first point of interest is to see how the most recent results of November 18-20 compare as a trend against earlier results. In the “right direction/wrong direction” question (38% right direction/56% wrong direction), Bush approve/disapprove ratings (50% approve/47% disapprove), economic approval (46% approve/51% disapprove), and the “would/would not vote for” question (37% would vote for/37% would not/25% consider voting for someone else), the results for the most recent period reflect slippage for Bush when compared to results from October. Again, this poll was taken during Bush’s trip to Great Britain and after several weeks of happy talk from the administration about the economy and Iraq. Also, in head-to-head matchups against Bush, both Dean (36%) and Gephardt (34%) would lose by double digits (50% and 52% respectively).
Second, among Democratic primary or caucus participants questioned nationally, the only candidate who showed noticeable improvement in his numbers lately for the November 18-20 period compared to the aggregate November numbers was John Kerry, who picked up four points in two weeks, up to 14% in the November 18-20 period. All other Democrats stayed relatively the same during the period, except Joe Lieberman, who fell three points.
The above-referenced results track generally with results of other polls over the last ten days, with all showing that voters are leaning in favor of an unnamed Democrat over Bush next year, and with Kerry and Clark seeming to run the best against Bush head-to-head.