Tuesday :: Dec 16, 2003

New Survey USA Polls


by Steve

Here's some Survey USA poll updates tonight. What they reflect is that for all intents and purposes, we have a two-man race through the primaries and caucuses.

Iowa Caucuses
Date of Survey: 12/11/03

Dean 42%
Gephardt 23%
Kerry 15%
Edwards 10%
Other 7%

Kerry has less than six weeks to catch Gephardt and stage an upset of sorts.

South Carolina Primary
Date of Survey: 12/16/03

Dean 21%
Clark 20%
Sharpton 15%
Edwards 15%
Gephardt 10%

This is possibly lethal for both Edwards who needs this win, and Lieberman, who has now fallen to single digits in this critical state.

Oklahoma Primary
Date of Survey: 12/16/03

Clark 34%
Dean 21%
Lieberman 11%
Gephardt 8%
Edwards 8%

Arizona Primary
Date of Survey: 12/16/03

Dean 31%
Clark 29%
Lieberman 10%
Gephardt 9%
Kerry 7%

Again, a lethal blow for Lieberman, who was counting on Arizona.

In looking at these results, you could conclude that notwithstanding surprises from Gephardt or Kerry by beating expectations in Iowa, or Edwards edging past Kerry in Iowa and then pulling out a critical win in South Carolina, there is no place for these guys or Lieberman to gain traction and survive for the later February contests in the big states. In fact, it looks like Lieberman and Gephardt are left with clamoring for third in both Arizona and Oklahoma as their reason for continuing. But to hang around for the later contests in order to be the Dean Alternative will take money, which may be headed to Clark already by then if these polls firm up his way.

Which leads to the question: Do we have a two-man race?

Steve :: 8:32 PM :: Comments (14) :: Digg It!