Tuesday :: Jan 13, 2004

Latest Polls From New Hampshire and Iowa


by Steve

The latest polls from both New Hampshire and Iowa show tightening races in both. After seeing a leveling off in Clark’s rise against Dean in the Granite State over the previous days, the latest American Research Group daily tracking poll taken through last night shows Clark resuming an upward climb and Dean falling two more points. There is now a fourteen point spread between Dean and Clark (34%-20%), with John Kerry picking up one point overnight (11%). According to ARG, Dean has seen a slippage in support amongst women 45 and older, and a slight narrowing of support amongst men and a significant narrowing of support amongst women as compared to Clark.

As for Iowa, John Zogby is reporting today that we have the makings of a four-way race, based on John Edwards’ steady rise and the fact that John Kerry is the clear second choice amongst all supporters. The latest findings through yesterday from Zogby show the following, with the January 8-10 results in parentheses.

Dean 28% (25%)
Gephardt 23% (23%)
Kerry 17% (15%)
Edwards 14% (14%)

Zogby’s comments are interesting:

Another big day for John Kerry. In Monday’s polling alone, the score is Dean, 27%, Gephardt, 22%, Kerry, 20%, and Edwards, 16%. It looks like Edwards is starting to see a post endorsement bounce. Meanwhile, Kerry has been on fire two days in a row. While Dean continues to lead, this has the potential to be a 4-way race.

There are doubts about Dean. One in seven (14%) of likely caucus voters feel it’s unlikely that any Democrat currently in the race could beat President Bush, but 3 in 10 have doubts about Dean’s ability to win.

Steve :: 3:30 PM :: Comments (1) :: Digg It!