Kerry Edges Ahead In Iowa
Confirming a preliminary post I had from last night, John Kerry has pulled to the top in Iowa, with 22%. Both Dean and Gephardt according to Zogby have fallen to 21%, and John Edwards comes in close to all of them at 17%, a true four-way race.
All of this is remarkable and a reflection of the good press coverage that both Kerry and Edwards have been receiving, as well as a sign of how well both have been doing on the stump. Both are trying to focus on a positive message and critiques of their opponents in impersonal terms, something that Edwards has tried to do since Day One and for which Kerry is becoming a recent convert. Will it work? Possibly. But in Iowa it will all come down to which candidate's organization can do the best job in getting their people out to the caucuses on Monday night, and this is where Dean and Gephardt, with the length of time and money they have poured into the state, may still have the necessary edge. And those with the best organization have the best chance of capturing caucus-goers who have yet to make a decision. And note that Zogby makes it clear that Dean is not in a free fall.