Sunday :: Jan 18, 2004

Campaign Update


by Steve

The day before the caucuses, there are several Iowa polls to chew on, all with the caveat that he who has the best organization stands the best chance to come in first.

The Zogby tracking poll through last night shows Kerry firming up a 24% level, with Dean rebounding to 23%. Gephardt (19%) and Edwards (18%) seemed to have firmed up at those levels as well. Yet the Des Moines Register poll, conducted through Friday of likely caucus participants, shows Kerry at 26%, Edwards at 23%, Dean at 20%, and Gephardt with 18%. The latest Survey USA poll taken through Friday shows the same four-way result.

The latest American Research Group daily tracking poll shows Dean reaching his bottom at 28%, and Clark falling back to 20%. But Kerry has rebounded to challenge for second with 19%, and has time depending on how Iowa goes to make a run at Dean for first. Kerry has doubled his support in less that a week, while Clark has topped out and Dean has fallen eight points.

Back to Iowa, I do question the decision by Deanís campaign to leave the state on a critical day to go to Georgia and meet with Jimmy Carter, who didnít endorse Dean. While Dean was out of state today, his rivals took advantage of his absence in the state. Why would Dean leave Iowa to go see Carter without coming back with an endorsement in hand? Was Dean led to believe that Carter would endorse him?

And in a head-scratcher, a poll by the respected Annenberg Election Survey out yesterday shows that a large number of Democrats still know very little about any of the candidates, even after months of cable TV coverage of the race.

Steve :: 10:43 AM :: Comments (5) :: Digg It!