Monday :: Jan 19, 2004

Iowa Caucus Results from Precinct 93


by Mary

Guest post by idiosynchronic
[Ed: I asked idiosynchronic to provide us some perspective on the results from Iowa. He lives and caucused in Des Moines.]

DES MOINES, IA, PRECINCT 93 This evening's suprising margins in Iowa's Presidential Caucuses were even evident in the deeply Democratic South side of Des Moines, long a haven for blue-collar families and union jobs.

In the final results, after 1 reorganization, John Edwards soundly won plurality of this precinct; of 113 particpants, 38 people caucused for Edwards, for 33% of the total, and 3 delegates available of the 8. John Kerry posted a 2nd place finish with 26% of the attendees, 30 people, winning 2 delegates. Third was Dick Gephardt, with solid union representation, with 26 attendees, 23%, and winning 2 delegates. In fourth, winning one delegate with 17% of the attendees, was Howard Dean.

Initially, 7 attendees formed a group for Dennis Kucinich but were forced by party rules to disband and reform with other viable candiate groups. If the group had remained intact, Kucinich would have won 6% of the attendees. Most moved to the Edwards group in light of this evening's earlier agreement between the Kucinich and Edwards campaigns.

The eight delegates chosen tonight will meet again March 13th for the Polk County Convention. From this point, Democrats will continue filtering delegates and platform planks through 2 more conventions until June 12th for the Iowa state convention.

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At 11PM CST Across the state:
John Kerry - 37.6%
John Edwards - 31.8%
Howard Dean - 18.0%
Dick Gephardt - 10.5%
Dennis Kucinich - 1.3%

My thoughts - I am incredibily surprised at these results. The polls had been trending in these general directions for the last week, but not in in numbers that were so striking. I had expected Gephardt to pick up 18-20% because of Gephardt's solid and incredibily active union base. His people were out several times today in public areas meeting and greeting people. John Kerry had been picking up steam, but he's struck with 10% more than polling expected earlier. And John Edwards? I am just flabbergasted - and I suspect that some of his bump was carried by Kucinich people who were forced or encouraged to move to Edwards because of the 15% viability rule. (Disclosure - I was one of these people . . and I will also be going to the county convention in March as an Edwards delegate) I would guess that if the viability rule wasn't in effect, that Kucinich would have polled a better 5-6% than the resulting 1%.

But Dean . . wow, its just like . . wow . . I spent the better part of today literally dodging Deaniacs on the streets freezing their butts off and holding signs. His apparent strength before caucus convened was horrendous. I expected him to place 25-30% because of the groundwork and grassroots support he supposedly had in place. Instead he pulled some really dismal numbers and picked little to no new support from the late decision-makers, nor did he pick up 2nd place votes from people forced to realign.

Mary :: 9:35 PM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!