Friday :: Jan 30, 2004

Kerry Poised To Have A Great Tuesday


by Steve

My, how being a new front-runner changes things. John Kerry finds himself running away with the biggest prize in next week’s group of contests, the Missouri primary. According to new American Research Group (ARG) polls, Kerry claims a whopping 46% of likely Democratic primary voters, with John Edwards coming in a distant second at 15%. Zogby similarly has Kerry picking this state up easily. This means that Kerry can grab the state without spending a lot of money to do so.

In South Carolina, according to ARG Kerry has moved past Wesley Clark into second place with 17% of the registered voters polled. John Edwards leads with 21% in a state he has said is essential for him, and Al Sharpton logs in with 15% and Clark with 14%. Yet according to Zogby, it is a dead heat and two-man race between Edwards (25%) and Kerry (24%). Edwards and Kerry are increasing their ad spending in the state, as Kerry obviously sees a chance to harm his rival.

In Arizona, Kerry has moved past Clark (24%-21%) according to ARG, with a surging John Edwards (15%) moving past a tumbling Howard Dean (10%) among likely Democratic voters. However, Zogby says that the race is over, with Kerry logging in 38% against Clark’s 17% and Dean’s 12%.

As for Oklahoma, Clark sees a chance for a victory next week according to ARG, leading with 23% over Edwards (18%) and Kerry (17%), with Dean plummeting to 8%. Zogby has similar numbers.

Kerry appears to have Delaware wrapped up, with 27% of likely Democratic primary voters. Joe Lieberman’s only good showing next week helps him log in for second with 16%, and Dean comes in third with 14%.

The compressed schedule now plays to Kerry’s advantage in that momentum generates endorsements and cash, as well as wins before negative news or stumbles can really hurt. If the races next week weren’t happening until the week later, then perhaps Dean’s assaults upon Kerry’s alleged sparse record in Congress, or debate misstatements may do some damage.

Steve :: 3:38 PM :: Comments (2) :: Digg It!