Monday :: Feb 2, 2004

New Quinnipiac University Poll Shows Trouble For Bush


by Steve

The latest Quinnipiac University national poll out today confirms what other polls have shown recently: John Kerry has opened up a large and commanding lead as the choice of Democrats to take on Bush this fall. Moreover, Kerry leads Bush by eight points (51%-43%) in a head-to-head match-up, runs ahead of Bush amongst Independents (49%-44%), runs even with Bush amongst men (48%-48%), but has a large favorable gender gap with women against Bush (54%-39%). Note that Edwards now runs within the MOE against Bush head-to-head, and that even Clark is now just outside the MOE.

These results track with a just-released CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll out this afternoon that shows Kerry with a 7-point lead over Bush.

It is interesting to see how some of the other questions on the survey played out to get a sense of whether these numbers may hold up or not. For example, Bush’s overall approval rating fell to its lowest level ever (48%) in this poll, and now has his highest disapproval rating ever (45%).

Kerry leads Bush by eight points even though 49% of those surveyed were satisfied with the way things were going in the nation today, and 50% were not. But women had a nine-point gender gap to the negative on this compared to men.

50% of those polled described their feelings towards Bush as either admiration or satisfaction, while 48% were either angry or dissatisfied.

52% of those polled feel that the Democrats will do a better job on the economy than Bush (40%), with Independents giving the Democrats a 11% lead on this (50%-39%), men a 5% lead (49%-44%) over Bush, and women a staggering 19% lead (55%-36%) over Bush. This is significant because 67% of those polled think the economy will be the deciding factor in how they vote this fall, while only 21% think Iraq will be. And contrary to what the GOP pundits and Vice President Cheney have been saying, deficits do matter. 54% of those polled think the federal budget deficits are very serious, with another 34% saying the deficits are somewhat serious. So nearly nine in ten feel that deficits matter after all.

Lastly, amongst the Democrats polled, and contrary to what we have heard so far from Iowa and New Hampshire, 70% think the candidate’s stance on the issues is their most important quality, while only 23% think electability is their most important quality.

It seems that even though a significant number of those polled were satisfied with Bush and the direction of the country, Kerry wins by eight points, and the Democrats beat the GOP on the biggest issue to voters this fall: the economy.

And yes, Bill Kristol and the rest of you, Bush’s deficits may be lethal to him after all.

Could it be that the media is missing the biggest story emerging in all of this? We see many media reports from pundits and reporters telling us how well-positioned Bush is by historical standards and how it is his campaign to lose. But could it be that even though folks may still like W, they want him gone next year?

Steve :: 1:18 PM :: Comments (16) :: Digg It!