Latest Newsweek Poll Shows Kerry/Edwards Beating Bush/Cheney
The latest Newsweek Poll out today shows that Kerry maintains a small head-to-head lead over Bush of four points (49%-45%) among registered voters. Edwards however polls even with Bush 46%-46% in a similar head-to-head. Interestingly, Newsweek has begun asking respondents about how a Kerry/Edwards ticket fares against the incumbent ticket, and the Democratic ticket polls better than the Bush/Cheney ticket by 49%-45%. This survey was taken through Friday of registered voters, not likely voters, where a poll by Gallup earlier last week had Kerry beating Bush by a larger margin.
Note that in this poll, as others, there are very few undecideds in either the head-to-heads or the ticket comparisons, single digits in both cases. Those polled have already made decisions eight months out. Yes, some of these votes can be shifted, and the GOP and their allies in the media would argue that the support for Kerry/Edwards is soft and can be shifted once the onslaught begins. But is it really likely that those who currently support Kerry/Edwards be shifted to Bush/Cheney? Is it really likely that those same voters can be turned off of Kerry/Edwards enough to stay home and let Bush get another four years? And is it beyond the realm of possibility that the support for Bush/Cheney is so strong that it won’t be subject to further slippage in the coming months?
Also note in the Newsweek poll that on the question of whether or not those polled want to see Bush elected in 2004, the “no” vote is now back up to 52%, with his “yes” vote down to its lowest mark of 43% since the 2002 midterms. And his approval rating stays below 50 at 48%, even after the recent road trips touting his economic record and the initial volleys against Kerry.