Gallup Says Kerry Is Ahead Of Bush In Battleground States
I want you to look at these results from Gallup’s latest poll yesterday and see if we see the same thing. Gallup makes a great point about Nader not being the threat among likely voters as he is amongst registered voters. But the most significant finding from this poll is that at this early stage in the race, Kerry is not only solidly ahead in all of the Gore “blue” states from 2000, but he is solidly ahead in all of the contested states from 2000 as well (where the margin of victory was less than 5%). Moreover, Kerry is only three points behind in Bush’s “red” states from 2000.
A comparison of support for the two candidates by the results of the 2000 election show that among likely voters, Bush is barely ahead in the states he won four years ago by more than five percentage points (which Gallup calls "red" states). He leads Kerry by just 50% to 47%. In the "blue" states, which former Vice President Al Gore won by margins of more than five percentage points, Kerry leads Bush by a substantial margin, 55% to 42%. In "purple" states -- where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was five percentage points or less -- Kerry also leads by a substantial margin, 55% to 39%.
In other words, the White House is in deep trouble. Sure, it’s early still. But given how many states were won the last time within that 5% or less zone, this is a recipe for a close popular vote but a large Electoral College victory for Kerry.