Why Are Things Erupting In Iraq Now?

by Steve

If you want background information on what is driving the increased violence in Iraq, take a look at Juan Cole’s blog, as well as this piece in the Globe and Mail from Naomi Klein. Cole notes that Shia militias loyal to Moqtada Sadr have been motivated not only by Sadr’s desire for Iraq to become another Islamic state like Iran, but by actions taken by the Coalition Provisional Authority. With less than 90 days remaining before the transition to the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), Paul Bremer not only closed down Sadr’s newspaper last week, but he also executed months-old arrest warrants for some of Sadr’s people. The closure of the paper prompted thousands to demonstrate in the streets, being agitated by a newly-enraged Sadr to take their protest in a violent direction.

For months, the CPA was hoping that Sadr would follow the lead of Ayatollah Sistani and work with the CPA towards the peaceful handover to the IGC. Yet there is a natural rivalry between Sadr and Sistani, as both want to be leaders of the Shias after the CPA hands over power. The CPA prefers the more moderate Sistani, and thereby began to take several measures to crack down in advance of the June 30 date, such as close the newspaper and arrest over a dozen of Sadr’s aides. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that these moves were going to incite the Sadr forces into violence. Yet the timing of the moves, the use of Iraqi security forces to fire on their own people, and the use of poorly trained coalition forces for the arrests and crowd control were an accident waiting to happen. As Klein notes, it almost appears that Bremer is provoking Sadr into all-out battle.

The net result this morning? Sadr has retreated into his mosque for prayers, almost daring the CPA to breach his place of worship to come in and get him, and you can see where this may go very badly very quickly.

Why would the CPA throw a match on this situation this close to the transition? Was this inevitable when the US-developed governing structure aimed to pick winners and losers, minimizing the role of more fundamentalist Shias? Well, what may be going on here is a struggle within the Bush Administration itself. While Bush and Rice (remember her, she was the one who was going to run all of this and clean it up?) are consumed with their latest story on why Dick Clarke is not credible, its possible that the PNAC cabal in the Pentagon and in Cheney’s office have taken a direction different from Karl Rove’s grand plan. Rove had set up the June 30 date so that 30,000-40,000 US troops could be withdrawn prior to November in order for Bush to claim victory in Iraq. But the PNAC cabal, partly because of legitimate security concerns and partly because turning over Iraq so soon doesn’t fit in with the PNAC grand plan, has decided that the June 30 date is now inoperative. Since Bremer reports to Rummy operationally, and since State wants to get the situation calmed down no matter how, the usual Bush Administration firefight within itself is playing out once again.

And all of this is going on while Sadr appeals to coalition partners like the Salvadorans and the Australians to please leave Iraq to the Iraqis, in essence, so that Guess Who are the only ones left to deal with a pre-Civil War Iraq?

Update:

As some of you have noted, we are now stepping into the quicksand with both feet. Bremer has declared Sadr an “outlaw” and it turns out that Bremer had an Iraqi judge issue an arrest warrant for him as a murderer several months ago. If so, why are we acting on it only now? If Sadr truly was culpable in the murder of a fellow cleric as Bremer now claims, and if we had enough proof months ago to get a judge to issue such a warrant, then isn't Bremer culpable for the deaths of the American soldiers who died in the violence over the weekend?

Meanwhile, Bush blissfully ignorantly insists that the June 30 date is still operative.

Hang on kids, and think of Slim Pickens at the end of “Dr. Strangelove.”