Thursday :: May 13, 2004

Kerry Leads Bush Nationally Except In South, And Looking Strong In Ohio As Well


by Steve

(Thanks to PollingReport.com for the graphic)

A look at several polls out today shows that there may be a disconnect between what some of the national polls are saying about the head-to-head race between Bush and Kerry and what actually may be happening regionally. While several recent polls continue to show a tight head-to-head race, a new large-sample Pew Center poll shows that Kerry is leading Bush nationally and in every region by nine points or more except the South, even in the Midwest. It also shows a less-than-expected gender gap with males in Bush’s favor, but a wide gap in Kerry’s favor amongst women.

Certain states look promising as well. After weeks of complaining by people like me that Kerry wasn’t doing enough in the critical swing state of Ohio, American Research Group came out with its latest poll today taken through yesterday. The ARG poll shows that Kerry is ahead of Bush by a larger than expected seven points amongst likely voters, and has a five-point lead over Bush among independents. More interestingly, Kerry does better amongst Democrats that Bush does amongst Republicans, and his favorables compare to Bush’s, even after the heavy Bush media assault in Ohio.

A CBS News poll out yesterday shows that Bush’s approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of 44%, and these results are consistent with Pew Center and Gallup polls out now as well. On Iraq, the CBS poll seems to show that Bush has lost the confidence of voters, as 58% disapprove of Bush’s handling of Iraq; a solid majority now want our troops out ASAP (55%); and 57% now think events in Iraq are out of control. Moreover, by more than 2-1, voters feel that Iraq wasn’t worth the cost and loss of life.

One simple question: If Kerry is ahead of Bush by nine points or more in every region except the South, according to a large-sample Pew poll, then how is it possible that he trails or is even with Bush in so many head-to-heads with smaller samples? Are the major national polls oversampling from the South?

Steve :: 1:13 PM :: Comments (18) :: Digg It!