On a day after Zogby reported that Bush was pulling ahead in several key swing states (paging Mr. Edwards, white courtesy phone), American Research Group comes out with its own polls in two of those states showing the opposite. According to ARG, Kerry is staying safely ahead of Bush in Ohio, and is now a point ahead of Bush in Florida. Both polls were taken this week, after the Reagan bounce. It should also be noted that the Zogby poll was taken a week before the ARG polls.
The more we see these polls go back and forth, and with Iraq likely to get worse now after 6/30, it is probably wise to not pay too much attention to these polls until after the Democratic National Convention. But it is somewhat surprising to see the turnabout in Ohio, when Bush has spent significant time there, and Kerry has yet to name his running mate.
On a similar note, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll taken through last night of likely voters shows Bush and Kerry in a virtual tie, but with more voters for the first time saying that the Iraq war was a mistake.