Friday :: Jul 16, 2004

Kerry Bolts To Seven-Point Leads In Both New Mexico And Michigan


by Steve

American Research Group reports that in polls done after the selection of John Edwards. Kerry has bolted out to seven-point leads in both New Mexico and Michigan.

I would not be surprised to see a gradual swing towards the Kerry/Edwards ticket over the next month or so. It will not show up so dramatically in the national polls at first, but it will register in the state-by-state polls where a large sample in a contained population will be very indicative of swings much quicker than with national polls (although those national polls look good since the pick). Zogby and other pollsters have said that there may be no major swings after the conventions this year due to the fact than many voters have made their mind up and cannot be swayed from one candidate over to the other. I think this is true as far as each candidate's base is concerned.

But where the Edwards pick will have the biggest impact I think will be in state-by-state results amongst independents and swing voters. Sure, the economy appears to be getting better and consumer confidence is strengthening. But as I opined months ago, we may see a case where voters feel better about the economy and Iraq, but have still had enough of Bush and cannot stomach him for another four years. With Edwards' selection making a positive impression with swing voters about Kerry, it is possible that we will see a gradual swing of a point or two every several weeks towards Kerry/Edwards, especially amongst independents.

All Bush has to offer folks is fear, and although that may work for his base, I don't think it will for the rest of the electorate.

Update: ARG reports this morning that its latest Florida poll shows a Kerry three-point lead, 47%-44% over Bush. This is a slight improvement for Kerry and a decrease for Bush since May. The poll was taken through last night, and comes before any significant travel in the state by Edwards. Kerry now has higher favorables in the state than Bush, and Nader is viewed unfavorably by 75% of those polled.

Steve :: 12:54 AM :: Comments (10) :: Digg It!