Friday :: Jul 16, 2004

Battleground States Improve For Kerry/Edwards


by Steve

Another key battleground state weighs in today, with the latest results from Wisconsin from American Research Group. And like the other states since Edwards came aboard, Kerry now has moved out to a six-point lead over Bush, in a state where Bush had been ahead previously according to other polls. In the ARG poll of likely voters taken through last night, Kerry now leads Bush 48%-42% in a state that Gore won by only two-tenths of a percent in 2000.

As I have said in previous posts, pay attention to the key state-by-state results between now and the fall to get a sense of how this race is going. Aside from Wisconsin, we see good news elsewhere:

In Florida, Kerry has pulled out ahead of Bush by anywhere from 3% to 7% over Bush, depending on which poll you read, in a state that Bush stole in 2000.

In Minnesota, Kerry is ahead by anywhere from 2.3% to 9% depending upon which poll you read, in a state that Gore won by only 2% in 2000.

In fact, if you look at the battleground state summary from both Zogby and the Wall Street Journal, you’ll find that the only three states where Bush now leads Kerry are West Virginia, Arkansas and Nevada, with Tennessee being tied. And the Bush leads in both Arkansas and Nevada are small. But these results mask the fact that since Edwards’s selection, both Virginia and North Carolina are now in play, and these were supposed to be safe Bush states. And Kerry/Edwards are only seven points down now in South Carolina.

South Carolina!

Steve :: 4:40 PM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!