Current Electoral Vote Prediction: Kerry 332, Bush 195
Take a look at the Electoral Vote predictor website this morning, after the results of a very interesting Arizona poll were updated yesterday, and see how it is possible that no matter what Rasmussen may be saying in its Daily Tracking Poll, the real battle this fall centers on who bags the most electoral votes. Yes, it's early. Yes, some of the head-to-heads show a close race.
But Kerry may end up in the opposite position of Gore this year, in that he runs close in the popular vote, but wins in the Electoral College. Sure, Bush could steal it again, like he is trying to do in Ohio now apparently. But if Kerry goes into the last weekend with a strong position in the Electoral College, Bush would have to pull off not just one Florida theft, but several, with poll monitors in all of those states ready to report anything suspicious.