Thursday :: Jul 22, 2004

Pew Center Poll Shows 17-Point Swing For Kerry/Edwards In Battleground States


by Steve

The latest Pew Center poll, with a very large sample I might add, shows that Kerry/Edwards have done very well lately in the battleground states.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted July 8-18 among 2,009 adults (1,568 registered voters), shows that while the race remains tight, Kerry has made a notable improvement in his standing in the battleground states. Kerry currently holds a small 47%-41% edge in these states; last month, Bush was ahead by 11 points (49%-38%).

Read that again, and note the swing from an eleven-point deficit to a six-point lead in one month in battleground states, and this is before the convention.

But beyond the battleground states, the Democrats are doing better on the issues than the GOP.

Since September 2002, prior to the midterm election, the Democrats have moved from a tie on dealing with the economy to a 12-point lead (46%-34%), and eliminated the GOP's 10-point edge on foreign policy. Democrats also are running about even with the Republicans on making wise decisions about Iraq (40% Democrat/ 38% Republican); in October 2002, the GOP held a 16-point advantage on handling Iraq.

At the same time, the Democrats have retained or in some cases reasserted their advantage on domestic issues. The Democrats continue to lead by wide margins on health care and the environment. And education once again has become a strong suit for the Democrats; by 45%-29%, the public believes Democrats can do a better job of improving the educational system. This marks a change from early in Bush's administration, when the president's strong focus on education helped the Republicans to neutralize the Democrats' advantage on this issue.

And here is one delicious outcome in this poll: after years of the GOP telling us during the Clinton years that they would be better at returning morality to public life, it only took three years of George W. Bush for the GOP to squander that issue against the Democrats.

The Democratic Party also has achieved gains on the issue of improving morality. Republicans had maintained a solid lead on this issue from the mid-1990s through the first two years of the Bush presidency. In January 2001, as Bush took office, the GOP enjoyed a 23-point advantage over the Democrats on the question of which party could do a better job of improving morality in this country. A year later, the Republicans held an 11% point advantage on this issue. Today, the public is evenly divided over which party can provide stronger moral leadership 37% choose the Republicans, 35% say the Democrats.

How much fun is it for Karl to find out that Kerry/Edwards have higher favorability ratings that Bush or Cheney after blowing $100 million to drag the Democrats down?

Steve :: 3:44 PM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!