Latest Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 317, Bush 210
As I get ready to head off to Boston tomorrow, take a look at the latest Electoral Vote Predictor, which based on new polls yesterday and today shows that Kerry is now slightly ahead in Nevada, Ohio, and has the West Coast, and Southwest trending his way to get him a projected electoral college result of 310-217 over Bush. But keep in mind as you look at these results that they are predicated on Florida going for Bush, which has been in doubt for months based on earlier polls than the Los Angeles Times poll of Wednesday, where they had Bush scratching to a two-point lead for the first time in a while. Also, the 310-217 split also assumes that Bush holds on to Arkansas and doesn’t take into account where Tennessee falls.
Some of the states that Kerry currently has in his column could also go Bush’s way, no doubt, as you can see how the “Barely Kerry” states are very close as well. But this result shows that Kerry, since Edwards came aboard, has cracked into Bush’s Southwest block, even to the point of Colorado being competitive, and Kerry has challenged in southern states where Bush assumed his base was already in the bank, such as North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Virginia.
In any event, let’s hope for a good and safe convention, a small bounce, and more progress in the coming days.