Monday :: Aug 2, 2004

On Polls And Bounces

by Steve

A quick note on polls and bounces. It is questionable whether or not Kerry/Edwards got any kind of a significant bounce from the convention, even though there is consensus that the proceedings in Boston helped the ticket. We can argue all we want about the reasons for this, one of which would include the fact that experts tell us that few voters were undecided this late in the race, and therefore not ready to be persuaded into a bounce for either side.

It is also true that major news outlets like Newsweek treated a small increase for Bush four years as a bounce when this year an increase of twice that size by Kerry is treated differently. But given how Gore was treated four years ago, and how some like CNN and maybe even Newsweek are already grabbing opportunities to downplay any momentum for Kerry, we should expect and be vigilant for signs of pro-Bush bias in the media and hold them accountable for it.

As for the polls themselves, here are the results and from this, you can make your own decisions. When all is said and done on this issue, it remains that the only polls to really start paying attention to are those after Labor Day, in the final 60 frantic days of this campaign.

CBS News Poll, July 30-August 1
(Previous results in parentheses)

Kerry/Edwards 49% (49%)
Bush Cheney 43% (44%)

Zogby Poll, July 26-29

Kerry/Edwards 48% (48%)
Bush/Cheney 43% (46%)

USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll, July 30-31

Likely Voters:
Kerry/Edwards 47% (49%)
Bush Cheney 50% (47%)

Registered Voters:
Kerry/Edwards 50% (49%)
Bush/Cheney 47% (45%)

Newsweek Poll, July 29-30 (three-way results)
Kerry/Edwards 49% (47%)
Bush/Cheney 42% (44%)

Update: Add another poll today to the post-convention mix. American Research Groupís latest nationwide poll, conducted Friday and Saturday, shows a 49%-46% margin for Kerry over Bush, virtually unchanged from a 49%-45% Kerry lead in ARGís July poll. With Nader added to the ballot, Kerry leads Bush 49%-45% with Nader getting 2%. Of particular note here is that among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 13% with Nader included in the poll, and 10% in a two-man race.

Steve :: 10:41 AM :: Comments (15) :: Digg It!