Monday :: Aug 2, 2004

Latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll Shows Kerry Overtaking Bush Amongst Both Registered and Likely Voters


by Steve

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll out this afternoon shows Kerry with a 50%-44% lead over Bush, among registered voters, with Nader getting 2%. Among likely voters, the Kerry lead is only two percent, 49%-47%, and Nader retains his 2% total. As we have said before, normally pollsters pay more attention to the results from likely voters, rather than registered voters. However, this year some pollsters are giving just as much credence if not more so to the findings from registered voters since many of those who didn’t vote in 2000 and 2002 indicate that they will be voting in this election. Note as you read this summary that although the race is close, Kerry/Edwards gained ground against Bush/Cheney and in many cases now leads against the incumbents on a variety of issues.

This poll was done Friday through Sunday, and ABC is quick to point out that Kerry’s numbers were higher the day after his speech (Friday) than they were over the weekend, indicating a cooling off as the glow of the convention was fading. What we are left with are a variety of polls that show anywhere from a three to a seven point lead by Kerry/Edwards amongst registered voters as a result of the convention, with Kerry/Edwards erasing and in many cases now beating Bush/Cheney on the individual issues. The convention firmed up his support amongst the base, and made Kerry at least competitive if not ahead of Bush on issues that had favored Bush up until now. And it is important to note for this poll that Kerry successfully used this convention to convert pre-convention Bush leads into Kerry leads amongst both registered and likely voters.

Steve :: 3:00 PM :: Comments (13) :: Digg It!