Friday :: Aug 6, 2004

State-By-State Polls Show A Bounce


by Steve

Despite the garbage from the recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, which showed that Kerry lost ground nationally as a result of the convention amongst likely (but not registered) voters, Kerry did get a significant bounce in Florida from the convention. According to a new poll released today by the American Research Group, taken through last night, Kerry now leads Bush by seven points, 50%-43%, in Florida amongst likely voters. But when Ralph Nader is removed from the calculation, Kerry leads Bush by eight points, 52%-44%.

In Florida.

In a sign that the convention did have a positive influence after all, itís the first time Kerry has hit 50% in the poll, and the lowest number for Bush. Furthermore, Kerry has a higher likeability number (54%) in the state than Bush (45%). Kerry now polls ten percent better than Bush with independents or minor party voters. And in a sign that Nader may not be the factor this time that he was the last time, 73% of those polled in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Nader.

But you can see how Jeb and the ethically challenged Secretary of State will work feverishly to dump as many blacks from the rolls in the coming months:

While Bush leads Kerry 49% to 43% among white voters (72% of the sample) and 46% to 42% among Hispanic voters (15% of the sample), Kerry leads Bush 87% to 9% among black voters (13% of the sample) which gives Kerry the overall lead.

Better get busy Jeb. If you canít deliver your own state for your Bro, itís over Ace.

The Economistís own poll shows that Kerry got a slight bump of four points nationally as a result of the convention. In this same poll, 58% say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country.

As for other states, despite some tightening showing in other polls, Rasmussen shows Kerry with a seven-point lead in New Mexico (50%-43%).

Rasmussen also shows Kerry and Bush tied in Arkansas, after Bush lead Kerry earlier in the state.

And Quinnipiac University reports that the convention gave Kerry a significant bounce in New Jersey, with Kerry going from a 46%-40% pre-convention lead into a now commanding 49%-36% lead after the convention.

According to Survey USA, Kerry has a large 11-point lead in Michigan amongst likely voters, 52%-41%.

And ARG shows that Kerry also got a bounce in New Hampshire, turning a two-point lead into a seven-point lead, 49%-42% again amongst likely voters.

What this points out to me is that Kerry did get a bump in state-by-state numbers, and I suspect that these numbers are higher amongst registered voters. Again, the media in its rush to downplay Kerryís momentum ignored state-by-state numbers or registered voter results, which may be more relevant this year due to the number of voters who didnít vote in past elections who have said they will come out of the woodwork to vote this year.

John Zogby himself runs a good piece today explaining not only why it was typical GOP expectations-hyping to believe that Kerry would get a large national bounce, but also why he thinks it will be difficult for Bush to win this November.

Steve :: 12:51 PM :: Comments (5) :: Digg It!