Wednesday :: Aug 18, 2004

Four More Red States, And The Military Vote Are Up For Grabs

by Steve

In what may be an ominous development for the Bush campaign, John Zogby has seen something in recent polling that has led him to place four more states into his swing or battleground state category for the remainder of this campaign. Note that three of the four states, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, were considered safe red-state parts of Bush’s electoral base, and Arizona, the fourth state, was considered a nice but not essential piece of the puzzle for John Kerry. Now it turns out that Zogby will be tracking each of the four states in addition to the existing 16 battleground states already being monitored by the media.

Why would Zogby put previously-reliable Colorado into the battleground state column, when it had been assumed to be a safe part of Bush’s Rocky Mountain base? Because a Survey USA poll out yesterday shows that Kerry/Edwards has pulled into a 47%-47% tie with Bush/Cheney in the state.

As for Virginia, Rasmussen has Bush ahead there by only three points, when he won the state by nine points over Gore in 2000.

And in Edwards’ home state of North Carolina, Bush/Cheney holds a six-point lead over Kerry/Edwards, 51%-45%, according to Survey USA in a state that Bush won by 13% over Gore in 2000.

All of this leads the Electoral Vote Predictor to peg the race at this point as a 317-202 Kerry lead, and that includes giving Bush four states where he is ahead by three points or less.

And to those who tell us that the military vote will be solidly behind Bush/Cheney in this campaign, I point you to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll out of Pennsylvania yesterday. Aside from Kerry/Edwards maintaining a five-point lead over Bush/Cheney, the pollsters noted that the Iraq war has become a problem for Bush/Cheney, with military families:

Military veterans or voters with a household member who is a veteran or currently in active duty or reserve service support Kerry 46 – 42 percent, with 6 percent for Nader.

These voters from military families say 54 – 41 percent that the war is wrong.
"Despite a month of relentless campaigning by the Republican and Democratic camps in Pennsylvania, the presidential horse race remains virtually the same.

Sen. Kerry gets credit for keeping his lead, but the President gets points for holding his own despite the war's unpopularity and the economy's uncertainty,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“In what may prove to be damaging news for the President, the anti-war attitude among voters from military households in Pennsylvania is greater than the attitude among all voters. Kerry hold the same slim lead among these voters that he has among the electorate in general,” Richards added.

According to Quinnipiac, Kerry/Edwards did not get a bounce from the convention in Pennsylvania. But if this trend in Pennsylvania takes hold elsewhere in the country, the military vote may at least be split due to Iraq. And that, coupled with cracks in Bush/Cheney’s southern and Rocky Mountain base, means trouble for the White House.

Steve :: 9:20 AM :: Comments (7) :: Digg It!