You remember Afghanistan?

by soccerdad

Oh yeah. That first place we invaded where there were actual terrorists and their supporters. Well its hard to figure out whats going on there. But I was curious and hadn't spent much time following the situation lately. I came across some articles today and thought I would share what I have found. The parallels with Iraq are many.

First up. Afghan vote threatens Bushs credibility . The thurst of this article is that Bush's shining becon of democracy may not be so ....democratic.

With evidence mounting of plans for widespread vote-rigging in Afghanistans upcoming elections, U.S. experts say the controversy could emerge as a serious liability for U.S. President George W. Bushs re-election campaign

Apparently they figure this out after determinimug they had handed out many more voter registration cards then there were eligible voters. You know what they said in Chicago in the old days "Vote early vote often"

"The rise of democratic institutions in Afghanistan and Iraq is a great step toward a goal of lasting importance to the world," Bush said in a speech in Washington last March. "We have set out to encourage reform and democracy."

Observers also claim the ground work necessary for a free and fair election — security, reconstruction and political stability — has not been established in Afghanistan and that the U.S. hurriedly pushed the country into elections to further its own agenda.
Also see:One Afghan, 6 votes — and 5 up for sale

It should be noted that the elections for the parliment have been posponed until the spring because of security proplems, but the presidential election is going forward becaue of US insistence.

Many are skeptical about the election outcome. Election Results Seen as a Done Deal

.......The unchecked power of regional commanders, a resurgent Taleban, voter intimidation and United States support for incumbent President Hamed Karzai - who is widely expected to win - all put in question the possibility of a free and fair vote

Mean while the security situation is deteriorting leading Kofi Annan to cal for an increase in international troops in Afghanistan. Annan calls for urgent increase in international forces in Afghanistan.

“Attacks on national and international forces and on electoral, government and humanitarian workers and their premises in southern Afghanistan have intensified. At the same time, in a disturbing development, several of the most serious acts of violence since the start of the Bonn (peace) process took place in the north and west of the country, areas that had been considered low-risk,” he said.

Since no one disarmed the militias for the warlords they are having some trouble getting along with each other. Rebel Afghan commander advances to within sight of regional capital; three more soldiers killed

Karzi would like to use force to disarm the warlords, but a British report said:
raised doubts over whether confrontational tactics could succeed. It suggested that Karzai’s administration lacked the power to compel the submission of the warlords. "On balance, we believe that taking on the [militia] commanders militarily is probably neither sensible nor a realistic option in the short to medium term."
The report indicated that the soundest way to solve contain militia violence would be to co-opt warlords, rather than coerce them. "Afghanistan’s ‘warlords,’ or commanders, are both a large part of the problem, and an essential part of the solution," CFAC members stated.

Being new to democracy, Karzi's opponents dont understand the perks of being the incumbant. Karzai's 17 rivals threaten boycott of Afghan election

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's 17 rivals in the presidential race threatened to boycott landmark October 9 elections unless he stepped down before the vote.

One of the ongoing problems is the lack of progress on reconstruction in Afghanistan. This is a nice summary of a GAO report

the General Accounting Office (GAO) issued a report covering activities from the fiscal year 2002 through 2003 periodm (October 2001 to September 2003.), which reveals that while the Bush Administration's rhetoric on Afghanistan has been positive, reconstruction efforts are not receiving necessary attention, priority or critical funds.

See Bush didn't lie, he's against nation building.

Drug traficing is a major problem now since they are back to growing poppies. Its estimated that its a $2 billion/year business. Its suspected that some of the money is going back to alQaeda and some of it is certainly going to the warlords. War On Terror Is War On Drug Traffic
Significant amounts of heroin are getting into Russia. RUSSIA EXPOSED TO AFGHAN DRUGS, WARN EXPERTS

Another very good article on the drug trade in Afghanistan is here
According to a United Nations report, drug production generated US$2.3 billion in Afghanistan in 2003, and the 3,600 tonnes of heroin produced last year accounted for up to 95% of the heroin on Europe's streets. According to a UN estimate, Afghanistan accounted for three-quarters of the world's opium last year. About 1.7 million rural Afghans, 7% of the population, rely on poppy cultivation......

"Out of this drug chest, some [Afghan] provincial administrators and military commanders take a considerable share," the UN report says. "The more they get used to this, the less likely it becomes that they will respect the law, be loyal to Kabul and support the legal economy."