Monday :: Sep 6, 2004

Gallup Destroys the "Big Bounce" Meme - Bush & Kerry Still Tied With Registered Voters


by Steve

Graphic courtesy of Gallup

Gallup, the pollster Republicans always run to when Zogby and the others donít generate results they like, just threw cold water on the Newsweek and Time magazine polls that showed Bush shooting to a double-digit surge over Kerry after the convention. In a poll that was done September 3 through last night, totally after the GOP convention concluded, Gallup reports that Bush leads Kerry among likely voters by 52%-45%, but among registered voters, Bush and Kerry are still tied after the convention, with Bush getting 49% and Kerry getting 48% in a two-person race. Read that again.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup post-Republican convention poll -- the first national poll conducted entirely after the completion of that convention -- shows George W. Bush getting a small increase in voter support. Bush's share of the vote among likely voters increased two percentage points, from 50% to 52%, while Kerry's dropped by an equal amount, in the two-way race. Bush now leads Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry by 52% to 45% among likely voters, compared with a 50% to 47% lead for Bush prior to the convention.

Likely Voters:

Bush 52%
Kerry 45%

Gallup has consistently reported Bush to be between 48% and 51% all summer among likely voters, and Kerry to be between 44% and 48%.

Registered Voters:

Bush: 49%
Kerry 48%

Gallup has reported that among registered voters Bush has consistently been between 44% and 48% all summer, and Kerry has been between 47% and 51%.

So, I ask you: whereís the big bounce?

Bush's two-point convention bounce is one of the smallest registered in Gallup polling history, along with Hubert Humphrey's two-point bounce following the 1968 Democratic convention, George McGovern's zero-point bounce following the 1972 Democratic convention, and Kerry's "negative bounce" of one point among registered voters earlier this year. Bush's bounce is the smallest an incumbent president has received.

Again, that's not me talking, that's the GOP's best friend Gallup.

And for that nonsense that the GOP convention was widely watched and very successful?

Bulls**t.

In general, the data show that the public rates the Republican convention no better -- and in some cases, slightly worse -- than other recent party conventions. This may also help to explain why Bush did not get a larger bounce from the Republican meeting in New York City.

For example, the public rated Bush's Thursday night speech similarly to other recent acceptance speeches. Forty-nine percent of Americans gave Bush's speech a positive review, saying it was "excellent" (22%) or "good" (27%). That's just slightly worse than the 52% who rated Kerry's July acceptance speech in positive terms. In 2000, 51% rated then-Gov. Bush's acceptance positively.

Forty-one percent of Americans say what they saw or read of the Republican convention makes them more likely to support Bush, while 38% say less likely. Americans were slightly more enthusiastic about the Democratic convention, as 44% said it made them more likely to vote for Kerry, and 30% said less likely. That 41% figure for the Republican convention is actually the lowest Gallup has measured dating back to the 1984 Democratic convention.

Letís see the GOP trash Gallup now. The GOP hit Kerry with all of the heavy artillery last week, and over the last month. And the best Bush can do now is crawl his way up to 49% with registered voters, with Kerry hanging right with him? And this is before the Clinton team begins work?

Keep your eyes open for the media bias and instances in the coming days where they still repeat the outdated mantra that Bush is surging to a large lead based on the Time/Newsweek polls, and then immediately email or fax them these results.

What big bounce?

Steve :: 2:11 PM :: Comments (18) :: Digg It!