Tuesday :: Sep 7, 2004
It's the Electoral College, Stupid
With all the agonizing over the horse-race numbers in the past week, it's easy to forget what really matters--the magic number 270. Even after the Swift Boats/RNC onslaught, Kerry still leads, albeit tenuously, in EC votes, according to John Zogby:
Mr. Kerry leads in states he needs to win to grab the top prize, but his leads are smaller than they had been in earlier polls. This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush. The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry.
Zogby spins these latest results in Bush's favor by arguing that Bush has the "momentum," but considering this latest EC tally factors in Bush's convention bounce, I think Kerry is in much better shape than Zogby lets on.
P.S.--The Political Wire post from whence I found the Zogby poll also points to a new Battleground States Poll analyzing Zogby's results which shows "Mr. Kerry well ahead, leading in 12 of the 16 battlegrounds in Zogby's twice-a-month polls." The best part?
And, of course, even with his convention-time gains, the president is still short of the strongest results he got in earlier Zogby polls. At one point in June, Mr. Kerry was ahead just nine states to seven -- and Mr. Bush led the Electoral College analysis, 285-253.
Kinda puts the Newsweek/Time polls in a different light, eh?