Thursday :: Sep 16, 2004

New Polls: Some Good News, And Nader the Spoiler Once Again


by Steve

New ARG State-by-State Polls And The Nader Effect

American Research Group has commenced a series of state-by-state polls this month and reported the first batch of those just now. Their initial release of 20 states shows some surprises and concerns for the Democrats over the impact of Ralph Nader in key states.

First, in the no-surprise category, ARG shows that each candidate will claim the following states easily:

Bush:

Alaska
Idaho
Kentucky
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming

Kerry:

California
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont

It is in the battleground states (except Washington where Kerry is comfortably ahead) where Nader may play a decisive role once again against the Democrats. In all of the following states according to ARG, Kerry is ahead except in Colorado (where surprisingly Kerry is within victory) but Nader poses the possibility of delivering the state to Bush.

Colorado: Bush leads by 1% with Nader at 3%
Maine: Kerry leads by 4% with Nader at 4%
Minnesota: Kerry leads by 2% with Nader at 2%
Oregon: Kerry leads by 2% with Nader at 2%

ARG will have reports on other states out later.

New Nationwide Polls Show Closer Race And Bounce Gone

Two nationwide polls of likely voters taken through early this week show that any post-convention bounce that Bush had is gone. Both the Harris Poll and a poll for Investors Business Daily reflect that the race is tied amongst likely voters. According to Harris, Kerry actually leads Bush 48% to 47% amongst likely voters nationwide in a poll that showed Bush with a 10-point lead over Kerry back in June. In the same poll, 51% say that Bush does not deserve to be re-elected.

Harris Interactive Poll (through 9/13):

1013 Likely Voters
MOE +/- 3%
(June results in parentheses)

Kerry: 48% (41%)
Bush: 47% (51%)

Nader has dropped to 2% in this latest poll.

Investors Business Daily Poll (through 9/12):

674 Likely Voters
MOE +/- 3.5%

Kerry: 46%
Bush: 46%

Nader has dropped to 3% in this latest poll. It should also be noted that Kerry leads Bush amongst registered voters, and has a healthy 10% lead over Bush with Independents and a 12% lead in battleground states.

To be fair, it also needs to be noted that Rasmussen shows a surge for Bush in the last several days, pushing him to a 49.3%-44.7% lead over Kerry as of today. This lead would match the leads of the recent small-margin polls like Zogby, Gallup, Fox, and others, but still fall far short of the more outlier polls like those of Time Magazine, ABC News/Washington Post, and AP/Ipsos.

Steve :: 12:43 PM :: Comments (7) :: Digg It!