Will Iraq Hold Out Until the Election; and What Happens Then?

by Mary

As Steve pointed out, the still top secret National Intelligence Report published by the CIA in July had three very gloomy assessments of where things would go in Iraq. Their best case was a tenuous stability where things didn't get worst. Well, it's pretty clear that that was not the road that was taken as things are dramatically worst today than they were in July. The situation is deteriorating very rapidly in Iraq and most thinking people are praying it doesn't just blow up. Here's Chris Allbritton's latest thoughts from Baghdad.

Iraq is a powderkeg. On one hand I hope it doesn’t blow, ever. But on the other, more journalistic (and less human) one, I hope that if it does, it waits until I get back so I can cover it.

And what about our troops? Well, besides the ones being threatened to sign up for another 3 years or face going to Iraq, there are the Guard Units that are totally unprepared for their upcoming tour of duty and the looming stortage of specialists. Add in the fact that the British are planning to pull out a third of their troops by the end of October, it's looking pretty grim on the ground.(via Just a Bump in the Beltway and Steve Guillard)

So what does that mean for our troops? Obviously, you can't keep rotating the same ones back again and again. Besides, the dead and the badly wounded aren't available to go back to Iraq. New troops have to be found.

If Iraq continues to simmer, perhaps the Bush crew can paper over the problems until after the election, but one day the piper will demand his pay. Bush says he is going to "finish" this war and his administration is already starting to pound the drums for war against Iran next. (And the public understands this danger. 51% of the public worries that if Bush gets reelected, the country will be in more wars.) That is going to mean lots more bodies to throw into the war machine. And the only way you get lots more bodies is to enact a draft. Why a draft? Well, what else can they do? They can't hire enough mercenaries to do the job and besides, that would cost too much. As Dave Johnson is saying, young voters might want to start thinking hard about who wins the election this year.

Bush has yet to admit the calamity we are facing in Iraq. He has yet to put the welfare of the country ahead of his election. All the plans are to "stay the course" until after the election and then he'll "fix" things telling the public, just trust me.

John Kerry is a man of his word and as he told the National Guard this week, they deserve a president that tells them the truth about the situation they are facing. And we as a country deserve understanding how bad things are now and what are the viable options.