Wall Street Journal Comments On Party ID Sampling, While Zogby Shows A Three-Point Race
Not surprisingly, Zogby’s latest poll shows a close race, and Zogby weights for party ID in constructing his sample. What is surprising however is that the mainstream media has noticed the problems we highlighted on Friday. None other than John Harwood of the Wall Street Journal pointed out the problems with poll sampling, and how polls can provide different accounts of the same race if they detach themselves from recent turnout patterns. And a GOP pollster himself says in the piece that party ID does not vary that much during a campaign.
As for the Zogby poll itself, it shows a 3-point Bush lead (47%-44%), a 52% disapproval rating, a 50% “someone new” result, and a 50% “wrong-track” rating for Bush. It also shows that Bush owns the terrorism issue, while Kerry maintains leads on domestic issues. It confirms that there is nothing that Kerry can or should do to try and convince voters that he will do better than Bush on terrorism. Quite simply, if this race is run on terrorism, on Bush’s terms in other words, Kerry loses. There is nothing that Kerry can do about that, and folks won’t change their minds on this by Kerry spending valuable resources trying to do so. He needs to focus on Iraq and the sorry Bush domestic record. If the electorate wants this race to be solely about terrorism, then so be it. They are accountable for their votes and what happens (or doesn’t happen domestically) in a second Bush term. All Kerry can do is run on the facts and lay out the differences, and provide a credible alternative.