Tuesday :: Sep 28, 2004

Gallup's Registered Voter Sample Was Inflated For The GOP Also


by Steve

Well, I have received the party ID breakdown from Gallup on their registered voter sample they used in yesterday’s poll. As you will remember, Gallup said that Bush had even a larger lead amongst registered voters (54%-41%) in a two-way race than he had amongst likely voters (52%-44%) in the poll. The registered voter (RV) result and margin in the new poll was even more suspect given that Gallup reported back in their earlier September poll that the margin between Bush and Kerry amongst RVs was eight points (52%-44%) in a two-way race. So why would Bush’s alleged advantage with RVs actually grow five points in two weeks when many pollsters were showing Kerry doing better in RV matchups than in likely voter matchups?

Perhaps it was because Gallup used a RV sample yesterday that had a 9% GOP advantage over the Democrats.

Registered Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

Total Sample: 935
GOP: 357 (38%)
Dem: 311 (33%)
Ind: 263 (28%)

Registered Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 54%-41%

Total Sample: 1006
GOP: 400 (40%)
Dem: 315 (31%)
Ind: 281 (28%)

So what the hell? If you want bigger numbers for Bush amongst RVs, and the 5% advantage you used in the earlier poll didn’t do enough, then surely pushing that up to a 9% GOP advantage should do the trick, right?

Does anyone in their right mind think that the GOP will have a 9% advantage amongst registered voters this year, after all of the Democratic voter registration and GOTV efforts, no matter what the GOP does to disenfranchise Democratic voters around the country?

This is utter garbage, and Gallup has no credibility. It is that simple.

Steve :: 8:40 PM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!