Today's L A Times Poll Shows A Tie If Weighted To 2000 Exit Polls
As many of you know, the Los Angeles Times released its latest nationwide poll today, and with much coverage the poll showed that Bush had a 51%-46% lead over John Kerry amongst likely voters. But what would these results look like if the LAT weighted their poll to reflect the 2000 party ID breakdown? We now know. Stop me if youíve heard this before: itís a tie.
Professor Alan Reifman of Texas Tech University, who knows a little more about polling and sampling than I do, says the following in an email to me today:
The new LA Times poll showing Bush ahead 51-46 would show a tie if weighted to the party composition in the 2000 exit polls.
Bush gets 7% of Democratic support (multiplied by the D weight of .39 = 2.73), 94% of Republican support (multiplied by the R weight of .35 = 32.9), and 50% of Independents (multiplied by the I weight of .26 = 13), for a grand total of 48.63.
Kerry gets 90% of D support (x .39 = 35.1), 4% of R support (x .35 = 1.4), and 45% of I support (x .26 = 11.7), for a grand total of 48.20.
Again, this race is tied if the polls are weighted to reflect the 2000 exit polls.