Tuesday :: Oct 26, 2004

Gallup's Florida Poll Is A Laugher As Well


by Steve

Fretting over Kerryís chances in Florida based on last nightís CNN/USAT/Gallup poll which showed Bush surging out to a 8% LV lead over Kerry (51%-43%), and a remarkable 9% RV lead (51%-42%) over Kerry?

Donít be. Check out the ridiculous sample that Gallup used to come up with those numbers:

Likely Voter Sample
TOTAL: 768

Rep: 341 (44%)
Dem: 273 (36%)
Ind: 146 (19%)

Registered Voter Sample
TOTAL: 909

Rep: 387 (43%)
Dem: 321 (35%)
Ind: 187 (21%)

Please, please, please.

Gallup is telling you that if the election were held this week in Florida, that with 95% confidence Bush would claim an 8% win over Kerry, and that the GOP would have an 8% advantage at the polls over the Democrats. They also want you to believe that there is an 8% advantage for the GOP over the Democrats in registered voters in the state if the election were held this week. Now I know that Jeb and Ms. Hood are good at tossing out Democratic ballots, but I donít think they are that good.

Besides, other polls out in the last day show that Kerry is ahead of Bush in Florida. For example, ARG shows Kerry with a 3% lead amongst LVs today, and Survey USA shows a 2% Kerry lead amongst LVs, with Betty Castor beating Mel Martinez for Senate as well.

Yet Gallup wants you to believe that Bush will have an 8% advantage.

Sure.

Steve :: 9:24 AM :: Comments (20) :: Digg It!