Heading Towards A 301-237 Kerry Victory
Aside from Larre’s advice to ignore polls this late in the game, and with a positive trend developing in some of the national tracking polls, I wanted to spend a few moments and catch up on where we’re at in some key states. Chris Bowers over at MyDD.com has done a good summary of the results, but my conclusion at this point is that Kerry will win all three.
Things look good for Kerry in Florida, as I pointed out earlier today in my post on Gallup’s garbage poll from last night. Kerry is ahead by 3% in an ARG poll out today, and by 2% in a Survey USA poll also out yesterday. Zogby shows Kerry surging to 1% behind Bush, after being behind 3% over the weekend.
Things also look good for Kerry in Ohio, where another ARG poll out today shows a 2% lead. Most recent polls, even Gallup, show Kerry with a lead, and this was before Nader was knocked off the ballot today. Again, Zogby shows Kerry rallying in Ohio to a 1% deficit, after being behind by 5% on Sunday. So Ohio is trending Kerry’s way as well.
According to an ARG poll out today, Kerry has hit the 50% mark and leads Bush by 3%. A local poll has Kerry leading by 5% today. Again, most if not all recent polls show that Kerry has a lead in Pennsylvania, and this was before Nader was knocked off the ballot in the Keystone State as well. Zogby shows Kerry extending a 2% lead on Sunday into a 3% lead yesterday.
If Kerry can hold the Big Three the remainder of this week, he will win, notwithstanding what the GOP does in each state to toss or suppress Democratic votes next Tuesday. But Zogby also has interesting and fresh results in other states as well.
Zogby shows Kerry clinging to a miniscule lead in Colorado (1%), within the MOE in Iowa, and safely ahead in Michigan (9%) and Minnesota (5%). Zogby does show that Kerry has fallen perhaps too far behind in Nevada (6%) and New Mexico (8%) for Kerry to compete, even if Clinton visits this week. As for Wisconsin, Zogby shows Kerry pulling to within 2% yesterday. It is not known how well Zogby does in capturing recent registrants with his phone interviews.
What this all means is that if Kerry holds the Big Three, pulls out Wisconsin (10) and Arkansas (6) in the end with the Big Dog’s help, and even loses Colorado at the close to Bush, Kerry will win it 301-237. But even if the worst-case scenario comes true here whereby Kerry cannot pull out Wisconsin or Arkansas, and still loses Colorado to Bush at the close, Kerry still wins 285-253.
Until Jeb and the Ohio GOP try and steal it on Election Night.
I'll do this at least once more between now and the end of the weekend, but go ahead and use this thread for your own Electoral College predictions, with as much detail as you feel comfortable offering.