Harris Poll Shows A 9-Point Swing In One Week - For Kerry
Thanks to a tip from reader Doug Barnum, we find that a Harris Poll released late Tuesday night, done for the Wall Street Journal, shows a sharp nine-point swing in a week. The large sample (2,493 respondents) likely voter poll was done online October 21-25 and then “propensity score” weighted to match up against the previous poll , which was done with a smaller sample by telephone of likely voters. Both likely voter samples used a LV criterion where the respondents are a) a registered voter, who is b) certain to vote, and c) who voted in the 2000 election.
2,493 Likely Voters/Voted in 2000
(October 14-17 Results in Parentheses)
Kerry: 48% (43%)
Bush: 47% (51%)
Since this poll only includes LVs who voted in the 2000 election, it will not include new registrants, which will undercount Kerry’s actual support. But even this LV result, with admittedly a tight screening criteria, shows a four-point drop in Bush’s support and a five-point increase in Kerry’s support in a week. This latest poll has a low MOE of only plus or minus 2%.
It should also be noted that Harris had a good record in 2000. And these results in the latest poll were obtained before the full effect of the Iraq high explosives weapons fiasco took root with the voters.