Monday :: Nov 1, 2004

Gallup And Fox (Yes, Fox) Have Bad News For Bush


by Steve

As we know by now, Gallup released its last national poll last night, and as we expected, in order to preserve its credibility Gallupís last poll amongst LVs shows last weekís 5% lead for Bush (51%-46%) now shrinking to a 49%-47% lead for Bush over Kerry. Amongst registered voters, Kerry has a 48%-46% lead.

But toss out those results by Gallup. Why? Because take a look at the composition of the LV and RV samples by party ID that Gallup used last night in their poll. I just got the internals from Gallup, and the LV sample they used had a 5% GOP advantage over the Democrats, and Kerry still almost tied Bush.

1573 Likely Voters
1559 In Sample
Bush Leads Kerry 49%-47%

GOP: 624 (40%)
Ind: 389 (25%)
Dem: 546 (35%)

When compared to the 2000 exit poll results, Gallup under sampled Democrats by 4% and over sampled Republicans by 5%, a nifty 9% swing. If the sample was reweighted to more closely follow the 2000 exit poll party ID breakdown of 39% Dem/35% GOP/26% Ind, can you imagine what kind of lead Kerry would have?

As for the registered voter numbers, the sample last night was this:

2014 Registered Voters
1988 In Sample
Kerry leads 48%-46%

GOP: 732 (36.8%)
Ind: 550 (27.6%)
Dem: 706 (35.5%)

They under sampled Democrats in both of their LV and RV samples, possibly far below what we'll see tomorrow and what we've already seen in early voting, and Kerry still cut a 5% deficit amongst LVs down to 2% last night.

For the last time, Iíll say this: Gallup is telling us that if the election was held early this week (and I think tomorrow falls in that category) amongst the likely voters there will be 5% more Republicans than Democrats. Yet many pollsters are saying that given the flood of newly registered voters this year and those that arenít captured fully by LV sampling methodologies, an RV model may be more predictive for tomorrow and those that have already voted. As such, how valid do you think it is that the GOP will have a one percent edge over Democrats amongst all Registered Voters tomorrow, and a 5% edge over those who actually vote? And even with those questionable numbers containing a 9% swing from what happened in 2000, Gallup is saying that Kerry is now ahead amongst RVs and has cut a LV lead for Bush from 5% to 2% in one week.

Update: Fox's last poll shows the same thing. Call in the vans, Laura.

Steve :: 6:58 AM :: Comments (52) :: Digg It!