Tuesday :: Nov 2, 2004

Slate's First Set Of Exit Polls From The AP - Zogby Predicts A Kerry Win

by Steve

Jack Shafer at Slate has been tracking exit polls all day and has the following first set of exit polls at 5:25 PM Eastern Time. Keep in mind these polls do not include those who voted early or absentee, where Kerry has piled up leads already in Florida and Iowa, among other places.

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Kerry 54
Bush 45

Kerry 51
Bush 46

Kerry 51
Bush 47

Kerry 58
Bush 40

Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Kerry 46
Bush 53

These numbers are being updated as I write this, and Zogby is releasing his final state by state polls at 5:30 PM Eastern Time, wherein he teases that there will be surprises in Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

Update: Based on his final state-by-state polls done through last night, John Zogby is predicting that Kerry will win the election and more importantly the Electoral College by a comfortable 311-213, with Nevada and Colorado too close for Zogby to call today. Plus, Virginia is predicted by Zogby to go for Bush, but it is too close for Zogby to predict by how much. But keep in mind as you look at Zogby’s predictions that he is guessing that all of the Big Three (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) will go to Kerry but again Zogby cannot say by how much. The rest of the states that Zogby predicts will go to Kerry, except New Mexico, are predicted to do so by safe margins, while Zogby says that Bush’s leads in Arkansas, Missouri, and North Carolina are only 3% and therefore are not safe bets for him.

Steve :: 2:31 PM :: Comments (48) :: Digg It!