Monday :: Nov 29, 2004

Exit Poll Claim Of 44% Hispanic Support For Bush Now In Doubt - What's Next?


by Steve

Far be it for me, a lowly blogger, to question Warren Mitofsky of the NEP national exit poll, or Richard Morin who heads the Post's polling effort and thinks that we bloggers are ill-informed and arrogant. But remember that Mr. Mitofsky said earlier this month that Mr. Bush got 44% of the Hispanic vote against Mr. Kerry nationally, which several folks though was high. Mitofsky based his figure on Texas to some degree, where he said based on his final, "properly" weighted exit poll late Election Night, Bush claimed 59% of the Hispanic vote in Texas. Ruy Teixeira has said over a week ago that this figure was questionable.

Now it turns out that upon further study by NEP and Mr. Mitofsky, not only didn't Bush get 59% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, he didn't even beat Kerry amongst Hispanics in Texas:

The revised BC-TX-Exit-Poll Excerpts showed that 20 percent, not 23 percent, of all Texas voters were Hispanic. They voted 50 percent for Kerry and 49 percent for Bush, not 41-59 Kerry-Bush.

That's a pretty nifty 19-point swing, huh?

So at the risk of being called arrogant once again by the likes of Mr. Morin and pollsters who know (supposedly) what they are doing, how is it possible to miss on this by that large of a margin with your properly weighted exit poll, and not now have to adjust downward the claimed Hispanic vote that Mr. Mitofsky said Bush got on Election Night? And if a correction needs to be made in Mr. Mitofsky's properly weighted exit poll for Hispanics nationally, then what else in that NEP poll needs to be looked at again as well?

Remember that it was Mr. Mitofsky who said that the early exit polls that showed Kerry ahead were wrong because Republicans weren't participating (which coincidentally is what a Karl Rove said as well), even though Mr. Mitofsky cannot prove his hypothesis. So call me a simpleton if I can't buy that one. But it was also Mr. Mitofsky's final exit poll which showed a 37% tie in party ID on Election Day between the GOP and the Democrats (kinda like what Gallup was peddling us), even though a CBS News/NYT poll done last week showed the Democrats with a more usual 7% advantage. This is also huge, because whereas it is very plausible that Bush may win by 3% if the party ID breakdown on Election Day was tied, it is more difficult to believe that if the Democrats had an advantage similar to what they experienced in 2000 and 1996.

So perhaps someone can get some answers from Mitofsky on both the Hispanic vote nationally, as well as what other properly weighted results from his exit poll he will be changing in the coming weeks, since he is so certain that the early exit polls were wrong because they showed Kerry winning.

Steve :: 11:34 PM :: Comments (4) :: Digg It!