Marching Into Hell

by soccerdad

I came across this article by Ron Krabill written in November before the attack of Fallujah I think. I will just briefly summarize more deatils are in the original article.

Based on his experience in peace negotiations and insurgencies he suggests the following aboutt the insurgents in Iraq:

1. A majority of those fighting see themselves as patriots and lovers of their homeland, fighting for the future of their sons and daughters

2. The doctrine of resistance is guerilla warfare, whose aim is never to engage and defeat a standing army. Rather the goal is to exhaust the enemy in a protracted war that cannot be won by conventional means

3. Guerilla warfare succeeds not by defeating an enemy militarily but rather by turning the broad population against the enemy.

He then suggests that the battle with the insurgenst will look as follows:

1. In a hot spot like Fallujah resistance will be enough for the Americans to engage and cause heavy damage to the city

2. Most of the insurgents will have left before the main battle

3. Much emphasis will be on damage inflicted by the US

4. Extremeist wing of insurgents will retaliate againast anyone thought to be helping the opposition.

5. Voices of moderation will fall silent due to imtimdation and exhaustion

6. Following American victory, life will return towards normal and then after a couple of months of quiet, insurgent activites will begin again.

7. There will be more recruits due to action of invaders

8. Increased conflict between Iraqis

9. The US will throw more money, men and weapons at the hot spots

10. Return to step 1 at a higher level of violence.

What to do?

The only way out is to remove all doubt that this is an invasion motivated primarily by American imperial purposes. America must face the truth - our leaders pretended to have global support but in fact had little all along, and made things worse by insisting on controlling everything about the invasion and reconstruction. The price of getting out with any credibility left at all will be bearing the continued costs of stabilizing Iraq, while giving up American control over events and structures there: administrative, economic, political, and military.