Tuesday :: Jun 28, 2005

Bush's Red State Firewall Crumbles


by Steve

If you want to see something that will cause panic for the GOP heading into next year's midterms, take a look at this interesting summary of Bush’s state-by-state approval ratings over the last two months from pollster Survey USA. There are several things I want you to check out as you look at this.

First, if you want to see something that will concern Rove, take a look at how many red states have disapproval ratings of Bush equal to or exceeding his approval rating, within the 4% margin of error, and you will see that the Bush electoral stronghold is no more:

Texas: 50% Approve-47% Disapprove (yeah, I said Texas)
Virginia: 49%-46%
Louisiana: 49%-47%
Oklahoma: 49%-47%
South Carolina: 48%-47%
South Dakota: 48%-47%
Georgia: 48%-48%
Indiana: 48%-48%
Tennessee: 48%-49%
West Virginia: 47%-47%
Arizona: 46%-49%

Again, these are all red states. And if my guy had a disapproval rating of say 45% or over in a "base" state, I would be pretty concerned.

Second, note how Bush’s disapproval rating is at 50% or above in the following red states:

Florida (50%-hello Bro’)
Missouri (52%)
New Mexico (50%)
North Carolina (50%)
Colorado (52%)
Arkansas (52%)
Iowa (52%)

Did I mention that these were red states?

But more importantly, take a look at his disapproval rating in two other key “red” states:

Ohio: 57%
Nevada: 57%

Now, at the risk of stirring up new “Forget about Ohio” conspiracy taunts from freepers, please explain to me how Bush can be at 57% disapproval in Ohio eight months after “winning” the state with a flood of moral values voters streaming from the pews to the polls under the radar screen? I mean, only nine other states have a higher disapproval rating of Bush right now than Ohio and Nevada.

So what the hell happened to all these moral values voters who “delivered” Ohio to Bush at the finish line? Did they disappear back into church and manage to avoid being polled?

Or did they not exist in the first place?

As for this realignment crap that Rove gets the Beltway types to lap up without question, how can you have a political realignment when:

-a majority in seven (7) of your base states are souring on your second term;

-a near-majority in another four states are doing likewise; and

-two additional states have flat-out rejected you?

Where I come from, if 13 states in your base are rejecting you, aren't you a screw-up?

Steve :: 12:47 PM :: Comments (18) :: TrackBack (1) :: Digg It!