Sunday :: Aug 28, 2005

Cole Predicts The Months Ahead In Iraq


by Steve

Before I head out the door today, and with the Shiites and Kurds giving up hope that they can bring the Sunnis on board to support a flawed draft constitution, you'll want to read Juan Cole's summary of where we'll be headed in Iraq in the coming months.

Professor Cole is dead-on: the United States will keep the same or higher level of troops in Iraq through the constitutional referendum later this year if to only keep the insurgents from destabilizing the whole country in advance of the vote. But if the referendum fails, as it very well may due to Sunni and even some Shiite opposition, and if a new national assembly is then needed to start over with the drafting of a new constitution, you will see both the Bush Administration and Tony Blair begin to significantly draw down troops between the first of the year and mid-2006 for political reasons. The only thing that will stop that would be if the security situation gets even worse than it is now, which is likely, and then Bush and the GOP are trapped with thousands of troops in a shooting gallery in the months leading up to the 2006 midterms. And you can see that Cole thinks that the Democrats will make the war an issue.

Steve :: 9:40 AM :: Comments (7) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!