CA Field Poll Analysis: They're All Going Down

by CA Pol Junkie

The Field Poll's final polling results for the 2005 special election have been released: for Propositions 74-77 and 80 and for Propositions 73, 78, and 79.

The Field Poll is known for being the gold standard in California for its accuracy. Based on the Field Poll's published track record, I have done some spreadsheet tricks to calculate the probability each proposition will pass and what the median expected outcome is.

All the initiatives look to be in bad shape:

73 (make life worse for teen girls in frightful circumstances): 10/25-10/30: 41% yes, 49% no
Odds of passage: 5.3%; Median expected outcome: 56.7% NO

74 (stick it to the teachers): 10/25-10/30: 44% yes, 50% no
Odds of passage: <1%; Median expected outcome: 54.6% NO

75 (screw the unions): 10/25-10/30: 40% yes, 50% no
Odds of passage: <1%; Median expected outcome: 57.7% NO

76 (make the governor an emperor): 10/25-10/30: 32% yes, 60% no
Odds of passage: 0%; Median expected outcome: 66.2% NO

77 (the only way Arnold can think of to try to get more Republicans elected): 10/25-10/30: 35% yes, 51% no
Odds of passage: 0%; Median expected outcome: 61.8% NO

78 (pharmaceutical industry backed prescription drug initiative): 10/25-10/30: 36% yes, 45% no
Odds of passage: 13.3%; Median expected outcome: 59.6% NO

79 (consumer group backed prescription drug initiative): 10/25-10/30: 37% yes, 43% no
Odds of passage: 17.3%; Median expected outcome: 58.4% NO

80 (partial electricity reregulation): 10/25-10/30: 24% yes, 48% no
Odds of passage: 2.9%; Median expected outcome: 69.6% NO

I know alot of progressives want 79 and 80 to pass, but having everything fail (my hope) would still be a great outcome for Democrats. I personally would love an outcome where everything fails because it would send two messages: 1. California hates Arnold and 2. California hates law making by ballot initiative. Further weakening (and eventually voting out) Arnold is very important, and I think most Californians would love it if a low probability of success discouraged special interests from pursuing ballot propositions, leaving the ballot for only the most compelling issues.

UPDATE: The L.A. Times has released a poll today with similar results to the Field Poll.