Atomic Dharma
by pessimist
When I wrote Gaming Indian Wars the other day, I didn't yet know just how serious the fact that Indian fighter pilots outperformed American pilots in recent war games could prove to be.
Now that I have your attention, let's look at why this idea of war with America is arising in the Indian consciousness. Anyone's military costs a lot of money (none more so that the American version!), so it should be logical that those Indian citizens asked to pay these costs should ask the following questions:
When we say that something needs to be done to reform and restructure India’s armed forces, you could well ask, why? The answer lies in the Rs 800,000 crore ($17.38 billion FY 2005) or so we spend annually to maintain our military machine. Surely, there is need to use this vast amount of money effectively.
Our author presents what he sees as the need, and goes on to question whether the sort of military that India buys is up to the challenges facing them in the future:
With China, ... India has the capacity to make serious inroads into Tibet in any conventional war. But it’s another 3,000 km before you reach China’s heartland and so, war with our present configuration of forces is a no-win option.So we come back to the question: why are we spending tens of thousands of crores for a capability that is not adequate to meet the needs of the day?
Just what kind of military capability does this author seek?
The answer is, because the government is unable, or unwilling, to carry out the deep reforms that can make our forces militarily effective against a full spectrum of threats, which should, hypothetically, include the US.
With friends like these, do we not already have enemies?
Our author presents some background for his premise:
There is some truth in that old adage about nations having permanent interests, rather than enemies or friends. Take the relationship between Iran and the US. Till 1979, they were the closest of allies, with the US supplying Teheran with its latest weapons, like the F-18s equipped with Phoenix long-range air-to-air missiles, ahead of even the Nato.
Today, both see the other as the Great Satan.
India’s response to a threat from China, or the US, cannot, or at least should not, be that there can be no response because they are much too strong.In 1971, when the USS Enterprise entered the Bay of Bengal and moved towards India, the navy did not put up its hands in surrender. Instead, they quietly despatched INS Kandheri, a submarine, to transpose itself between the Americans and the rest of the Indian fleet involved in the Bangladesh war. One F-class submarine versus a nuclear carrier battle group may appear too improbable a scenario, but have no doubts that if required, the Kandheri would have given battle, regardless of the odds.
Unlike too many Americans, our author understands what these odds are - he paid attention when CNN showed Shock And Awe:
Our political leadership ... needs to understand the nature of modern war, whose outcome can be sudden and catastrophic, both politically and militarily. Surveillance and communications technologies have given commanders the unprecedented ability to know in great detail where the adversary is, and where his own forces are deployed. Precision weapons, used over long ranges, can devastate an opponent well before he can reach the battlefront. So, a slow-witted adversary opens himself up to a knock-out punch.As Bad As It Gets
Usually, divisions that lose 10-20 per cent of their weapons, equipment and manpower are written off. But the Iraqi attrition rates went up to 50 per cent. At the end of the war, Iraq had just 50 or so pieces of its 10,500 strong artillery still standing. Most of the destruction was done by laser and GPS-guided aerial bombs, or by long-range MLRS/ATACMS rockets.Our author wasn't the only one paying attention to what Shock And Awe really meant:
Significantly, among the countries that have drawn the deepest lessons from the Iraq war has been China. The Chinese have since overhauled their forces in terms of their doctrine, equipment and organisation. We, too, should be asking: does the army need more towed artillery tanks? Can the job be done by air power? Will our divisions, in their present organisational form, be sitting ducks if confronted by long-range precision strikes? Can we deliver such strikes?[T]he doctrine, organisation and equipment of our armed forces are obsolete. As of now, the three services follow a policy of ‘joint’ warfare — each of them has its own combat plans that are loosely coordinated at the top and the command levels. The incredibly fast-paced battle doctrines of the day and the lethality of weapons make this archaic. So the only way in which the armed forces can generate greater and more effective firepower is to integrate their capabilities. They need to work out a new integrated warfighting doctrine, and on its basis, restructure, re-equip and re-deploy their forces.
We Walk The Line - Without You, George!
One deep-rooted aspect of our strategic culture is that unlike the US and many Western countries, India, like China, is not comfortable with military alliances. Surely, the logic then ought to be that India, like China, must develop a full-spectrum capability based on the need to be able to tackle any country, or group of countries, that may threaten India’s integrity, or its vital interests.So while we resolve our disputes with Pakistan and China, build strategic ties with the US, Russia or Japan, we need to maintain a capacity of dealing with any threats on our own, single-handedly.
This includes threats from China or the United States. Considering how more and more the United States is going it alone, and that King George has declared rights he won't allow to any other nation, is it not possible to believe that economic considerations could be used as an excuse to conduct preemptive war? India must think so, for there is no other area of contention between India and the United States. They aren't alone.
That is why the nations of the world are seeking to protect themselves from America.
As Blog Lord Steve Soto presented yesterday, Iran is buying anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Russian fighter aircraft are known to have the ability to outperform American planes. This news is getting about, causing some pundits to call upon their governments to seek other suppliers of fighter aircraft and abandon American planes.
In addition, the Indian pilots impressed American war game observers with their abilities and were considered superior to American pilots. They join an elite group. Jane's reports that Israeli pilots overwhelmingly defeated USMC pilots in exercises. [Scroll down]
The only logical thing for Americans to do would be to return our nation to a posture of being a good neighbor and friendly world citizen, but I have serious doubts that this will come about. I will explain this in a future post.
But the world can't wait for American citizens to wake up from the PNAC media slumber we've been in for too long and exercise our rights to exorcise the demons that threaten the entire world from our government. No matter how much PNAC prattles on about American world dominance, they neglected to ask the rest of the world if this was OK with them. Obviously, it isn't - and more and more nations are coming to this conclusion. They have to act in their own defensive self-interests - even if George doesn't like it.
This means that at some point in the future, our country will have to deal with George's greatest ambition - to stare down the entire world in a hostile manner.
Don't expect me to stand with him. Will you?
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