Saturday :: Feb 4, 2006

IAEA Refers Iran To Security Council - Rummy Accuses Iran Of Being Leading Sponsor Of Terrorism

by Steve

As expected, the IAEA referred Iran to the Security Council today over concerns about the country’s determination to restart its nuclear enrichment program. The US and the European Union did many things right in the run up to this development, and the Iranians under their new unstable president, seemingly wanted this to happen all along, so that they had the pretext for jumping out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, of which they are a current signatory. As expected, after the IAEA referral, Iran officially resumed uranium enrichment and stopped any further IAEA snap inspections today.

Iran knows that both Russia, and particularly China, will never allow the Security Council to impose economic sanctions against them, something reaffirmed by China just yesterday. In a different time and with a different president and economic situation facing us, an American president would be able to effectively bully both countries in the court of public opinion to come around and agree that it is in no one’s interests to allow Iran to have an unsupervised nuclear program. But George W. Bush is not that president, and now is no longer that time after we invaded Iraq in violation of international law and with the Chinese owning our treasury.

If you fast forward this story to its illogical but certain conclusion, and given Cheney and Rummy’s antagonism towards Iran and their delusions about toppling another major source of oil, it is almost all but certain now that this country and Israel will strike Iran sometime this year, especially since recent polls indicate the country is at least mixed on the idea. If you want confirmation that we will go into Iran, check out how quickly Rummy adopted the "Iran=terrorism" script today.

And with the Bush Administration giving strong indications that it has now shifted course and is working to strengthen the Sunnis and even their insurgents inside Iraq to take on the Shiites and their militias, one can only dread what will happen inside Iraq if such a strike takes place, and what Muqtada al-Sadr and Grand Ayatollah Sistani will unleash, with 135,000 of our troops tied down inside that country without sufficient armor. The prospect of seeing the Shia turn actively against us, and the Kurds separating themselves from us out of self-interest would make what has happened heretofore look tame.

Should we take a hard line now against Iran? I think there was a time for an alternate course with Iran that played to their inflated notion of their own self-importance in the region, while President Khatami was in power right after 9/11 and the offers from both Iran and Syria to help us with Al Qaeda were on the table but ignored by this administration, much the same way this administration ignored chances to get both Bin Laden and Zarqawi in 2001 and 2003, or the same way this administration ignored the August 6, 2001 PDB. The simple truth is that Cheney wants this war with Iran, as the next step in “the grand plan.” Rove can use another war drive this November, and Iran and its cuckoo bananas leaders are making it easy for us, even if legally our case is suspect. Then again, that has never stopped these guys before, and they will want us to ignore that it was our friend Pakistan and A. Q. Khan that sent Iran the documents they would need to become a threat in several years.

But make no mistake, sometime after the Security Council fails to pass a resolution for sanctions against Iran, due to a possibly Russian, and definitely a Chinese veto, there will be an attack against Iran. Given the pride the Iranians have ascribed to the restart of a nuclear program in the “Axis of Evil” environment that this administration has created, I hold out little hope that the Iranians will back down, but I hope I am wrong.

Otherwise, I cannot fully imagine what will happen in the region after a strike by Israel or our country against Iran now, an occurrence that could have been prevented years ago by a more enlightened leadership in this country.

Steve :: 10:10 AM :: Comments (51) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!