Thursday :: Mar 30, 2006

Polling News


by Steve

Courtesy of Pew Center

Yikes! Rasmussen of all pollsters is reporting today that a short-lived bump in Bush’s approval rating earlier this week was nothing more than “statistical noise.” In their three-day rolling average poll today, Bush’s approval rating has slid back down to only 40%, the lowest level ever recorded in a Rasmussen poll. More than twice as many people “strongly disapprove” of Bush’s performance (43%) than “strongly approve (19%).

And why might Bush’s numbers be falling this week? Perhaps because of his focus on immigration, an issue on which the pollsters report the electorate is deeply divided. A Pew Center poll out today shows that despite divisions in the country on what to do, only 4% of those polled said that immigration was the most important problem facing the country, and Bush came in last (at 42%) of those who were trusted to fix the problem, with the Democratic Party having an 11-point edge over the president (53%).

Ah, those who live by wedge issues, ….

Speaking of statistical noise, you may have heard yesterday that Gallup was telling folks that Democrats have a slight lead now in party ID over Republicans, for the first time in a while. Baloney. Other pollsters, such as AP/Ipsos, CBS News/NYT, and NBC News/WSJ all reported over the last 6-12 months that Democrats have maintained a 4-13 point advantage in party ID. Yet to Gallup, it is a big deal of their own making that Democrats have pulled even in their convoluted calculations. A lot of this revolves around how and when you ask the party identification question, but Gallup is an outlier on this topic, not the industry standard.

Steve :: 3:46 PM :: Comments (6) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!