Thursday :: Apr 13, 2006

Morning Update - Kerry Would Beat Bush By Ten Points Now


by Steve

How bad is it for Bush now? Kerry would beat him by ten points if the election were re-run, according to a new poll. After you factor in the likely voter advantage that the GOP usually gets, it would result in Kerry winning by about 3-4 points, which given the closeness of several states in 2004, and what we now know about Ohio means that Kerry would take the Electoral College as well. Note that among registered voters, Democrats have a 14-point advantage in the 2006 generic ballot. It all comes down to turnout folks.

Scooter’s counter-filing to the court in response to Fitzgerald’s filing last week asserts that he wasn’t directed to leak Valerie Plame’s name as part of a pushback campaign against Joe Wilson. That isn’t the point; Fitzgerald didn’t say Scooter was told to leak Plame’s name. He said that Scooter was told to leak classified information, which the White House has already admitted. The only other revelatory item from Scooter’s filing late yesterday is the indication that his attorneys will seemingly drag Shooter and W into his defense, which seems to be a trial balloon for a presidential pardon.

A fourth retired general, who worked as a senior aide to Paul Wolfowitz, is now calling for Rumsfeld to go.

Experts said yesterday that Iran is years away from possessing enough equipment and technical knowledge to generate enough uranium for nuclear bombs, despite the bluster from the country’s leaders. A US official, who is John Bolton’s latest flamethrower at State, and who has scuttled international nonproliferation efforts recently, made the stupid Cheneyesque comment yesterday that Iran could have the bomb in 16 days once they had enough centrifuges, an assertion based on the assumption that Iran would have those centrifuges anytime soon. They won’t. And for those of my brethren in the center-left blogosphere who want to stand on the argument that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, get over it. Bush’s bungling, his Iraq illegality, his preemptive doctrine, and his rewarding of India for violating the NPT ensures that we have little moral ground or good options to stop Iran from going nuclear while Bush let North Korea do the same thing. The only difference between what he allowed Pyongyang to do and what he claims he wants to stop Iran from doing is oil, and the PNAC grand plan. The public is confused about what to do in Iran, but more than half of those polled in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll say that they don’t trust Bush to do the right thing anyway.

The Washington Post finally catches up to the fact that the Bush Administration is playing favorites with the Sunnis now in Iraq, after supporting the Shiites for the first two years of the occupation. I hate to break it to the Post, but the Shiites and the center-left blogosphere has known about Bush’s preference for the Sunnis for months now.

Newsweek’s top-notch Richard Wolffe and Holly Bailey surmise that Bush is getting more and more comfortable with admitting mistakes. Sorry guys, rhetoric is one thing. Actions are another.

Newsweek’s Mark Hosenball asks if Rummy is quietly trying to assemble his own secret police and intelligence operation with a domestic capability. Of course he is.

As the Iraqis dither about forming a new government, we have now lost more American soldiers in just the first 12 days of April than we did in all of March.

AT&T has been handing over information on its customers to the NSA since 2003 without a court order to do so, which probably explains why AT&T faced no federal challenge to its reacquisition to Baby Bells.

The Washington Post says today that based on Francine Busby’s failure to get 50 percent in a GOP district, the Democrats probably won’t take back the House this fall. Another example of flawed horse race thinking from a paper that has carried the NRCC’s water for years.

Antonin Scalia said that the proudest thing he has done as a Supreme Court justice is to go duck hunting with Dick Cheney and then rule in favor of the Bush White House in Cheney’s Energy Task Force case. Scalia said that if you can’t trust a Supreme Court justice more than that, you should get a life. This coming from the man who spearheaded the supposedly nonprecedential Bush V. Gore decision and then watched his son get a high-level job in the Bush administration.

Steve :: 8:32 AM :: Comments (22) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!