Monday :: Aug 7, 2006

Bush And Condi's Alternate Universe


by Steve

The Bush Administration “Alternate Universe Tour 2006” continues.

Bush, today:

BUSH: My attitude is that a young democracy has been born quite quickly. And I think the Iraqi government has shown remarkable progress on the political front. And that is is that they developed a modern constitution that was ratified by the people and then 12 million people voted for a government.
Which gives me confidence about the future in Iraq, by the way. You know, I hear people say, Well, civil war this, civil war that. The Iraqi people decided against civil war when they went to the ballot box. And a unity government is working to respond to the will of the people. And, frankly, it’s quite a remarkable achievement on the political front.
And the security front is where there has been troubles. And it’s going to be up to the Maliki government, with U.S. help, to use the trained forces and eventually a trained police force to take care of those who are trying to foment sectarian violence.

Condi, to Time Magazine over the weekend:

I don't think Iraq is going to slide into civil war. They have a problem with sectarian violence. [But] I don't think that you're looking at the breakdown of the institutions; people haven't opted out of a unified Iraq.

Bush, preparing for a civil war, over the weekend:

The Bush administration insists Iraq is a long way from civil war, but the contingency planning has already begun inside the White House and the Pentagon. President Bush will move U.S. troops out of Iraq if the country descends into civil war, according to one senior Bush aide who declined to be named while talking about internal strategy. "If there's a full-blown civil war, the president isn't going to allow our forces to be caught in the crossfire," the aide said. "But institutionally, the government of Iraq isn't breaking down. It's still a unity government."

The Iraqis themselves, today:

Amid failed moves for a peace deal between the Iraqi government and insurgents through a national-reconciliation plan, the Shi'ite majority is pushing ahead to create a federal region for themselves in the country's south.
[snip]
"The prime minister's reconciliation project has failed, and so far no major insurgency group has endorsed it," Kurdish member of parliament Abdullah Aliawayi said.
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had implicitly acknowledged the failure of his plan at a meeting with representatives of the major political parties, he said.
[snip]
Many Iraqi politicians go further to say that the country is in civil war already.
"Iraq is now in a state of undeclared civil war," said Aliawayi, who attended a failed meeting of Iraqi factions in Cairo. "The visions of Sunnis and Shi'ites for the future of Iraq are too far from each other to be easily brought together in a joint program."
As more and more signs of the failure of the reconciliation plan surface, Shi'ite groups are speeding up efforts to carve a federal region for themselves.
Speaking at a ceremony at the holy city of Najaf last week, Iraqi Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a Shi'ite, said Shi'ite politicians will raise the issue of federalism in parliament.
"We suggest continuing the establishment of regions," he said. "We are going to submit the project to the parliament in the coming two months." The government has failed to provide basic services, he said.

The Asia Times Online piece indicates that the Iraqis themselves are already discussing the trade-offs necessary to make a partitioning work, such as the Sunnis in the center region trading water for oil with the Shiites in the south. We know the Kurds would rather be their own bosses now.

Joe Biden cut to the chase months ago and began talking about facilitating the partitioning of Iraq and pulling together a regional security and economic conference. The conference would focus on border security and support for the three regions, and establish the role and responsibilities of neighboring states, including Iran. But a partitioned Iraq plays against the PNAC/Big Oil plan to grab Iraqi oil as a wedge against OPEC, and allowing each of the three states to do what it wants with its resources screws up the big plan.

The big plan is dead. Democrats should develop an alternate plan around this fact and tell voters that unlike the Bush Administration, the Democrats know the way forward and don't deny reality while more soldiers die for Bush's delusions.

Steve :: 9:48 AM :: Comments (30) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!