WaPo/ABC News Poll Shows Anti-Incumbent Mood Growing
While we keep our eyes on the primary in Connecticut today, note the results of the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll out today, which shows that there is a growing anti-incumbent mood in the country, and that the Democrats have a 13-point advantage in the generic ballot question 90 days out from the midterm election. Aside from that finding, there are some interesting quirks to this poll.
Bush’s approval number is up now to 40% according to this poll, climbing seven points since his low-water mark of 33% in May, even though this poll’s sample has a 7-point Democratic advantage (34%-27%) over self-identified Republicans, with 34% independents in the sample. What exactly has gone well enough since May for Bush’s approval rating to climb seven points?
The answer may lie not in the party ID of the sample, but in the political ideology of those polled. Specifically, this poll’s sample had the highest number of self-identified conservatives (38%) in almost a year-and-a-half, while tying the poll’s lowest number of self-identified liberals (18%). Similarly, this sample had 46% self-identified born-again or evangelical Christians, tying the poll’s highest number ever. With so many conservatives and evangelicals in this sample, it may not be surprising that Bush’s approval rating has now gone up to 40%.