Pew Poll: After Fear And Smear, Bush Only At 37%

by Steve

Pew Center graphic

Yesterday, we all heard about the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll which showed Bush’s approval rating crept up to 42% over the last two months after the fear and smear campaign of late. That poll had just over a thousand respondents over the past weekend. Today, the latest Pew Center poll came out with a far larger sample of over 1500 respondents during roughly the same time.

According to Pew, one of the most respected polling outfits around:

-Despite fear and smear, Bush’s approval rating is still stuck at 37% from last month;

-36% of registered voters say their vote will be a vote against Bush;

-Democrats have an 11-point lead in the generic ballot amongst likely voters;

-54% want the US to negotiate with Iran;

-50% think Iraq is in a civil war;

-The only issue where the GOP has an advantage is terrorism;

-Democrats are favored on all other issues, including Iraq;

-Independents favor Democrats by 14 points this year;

-Democratic party loyalty is much higher than Republican party loyalty;

-A spike in GOP concern over terrorism coincides with a similar Democratic spike over Iraq.

That’s the calculus: offset GOP bedwetting amongst their base on terrorism by reframing the debate back to Iraq. And don't for a moment underestimate the importance of the finding that Democrats have an 11-point advantage in the generic ballot amongst likely voters. With a motivated base, the independents on our side, and a focus on Iraq and the economy, the election is within the Democrats' grasp if they can get out their voters and stay on message.