Rothenberg Predicts Big Democratic Gains In The House

by Steve

Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire has obtained Stuart Rothenberg’s final printed summary of what he thinks will happen next Tuesday:

The Senate: "While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate."

The House: "Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years."

Rothenberg has forgotten more about elections than I will ever know, but I don’t share his conclusion about the Senate. Based on some late polling and tightening in Montana and Tennessee, I think the Democrats will be lucky to have a net pickup of five seats, unless things break well for Ford and Tester. As for the House, winning as many as 34 sounds too good to be true, but Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, who will be heard from later this week, look at races district by district, so he is seeing a shift in the last days of the campaign favorable to the Democrats.

On Monday night, I’ll put up a thread for you to make your final predictions for Tuesday.